Published: 11/04/2024
Chris Dorlini
Team Lead, Account Management, Dynata
As has been stated in past blog posts, incidence rate is an important metric when assessing the future success of any research study. But what’s behind the number your client gave you to run your feasibility analysis? In many cases, that number is an average that if not recognized, could cause difficulties as your study nears completion. Understanding how that incidence rate relates to other important factors, such as demographic quotas, geographic quotas, and seasonality will help ensure a successful study.
Incidence change by demographics & geographic quotas:
In many instances, you’ll be asked to apply national gen pop rep quotas to a study about a product or service not everyone in the country uses at the same rate. The study fills quickly as the demos & geos who most qualify answer the survey but then quickly slows down as you look to fill demos and geos who qualify at a lower rate than their proportion of the general population. Two good examples are console gaming or residential pool ownership. Discussing with your client how incidence rate differs throughout the quotas will allow you to build out a more targeted sample plan.
Incidence change by seasonality:
This happens most often with trackers. A client may provide an incidence rate that’s an average for the year. Once in field, you may find an inconsistent incidence rate wave to wave because qualification fluctuates over the course of the year. As an example, grill usage dips in the winter, especially in the Northeast. Building out a plan beforehand with an understanding of this seasonal fluctuation will help you avoid sample shortfalls and maintain consistent sample sources.
Things you can do:
Research who uses the product or service. A quick Google search or Chat GPT session can shed some light on where incidence could potentially drop in your client’s quota plan.
Research peak times for the use of the product or service. This might be a little more difficult than a simple web search so partner your client.
Talk to your client as you scope the project. Express your concerns, discus your research, and ask for their feedback when interview this similar audience in the past.
If your client really doesn’t know what the quotas should be, offer a market sizing study. Send the sample out balanced by national gen pop quotas on starts and allow the completed interviews to fall naturally. This will provide you with a snapshot of who is using the product or service being studied.